Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 07 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 74200 (+1959) 1258051 (+21064) 206203 (+6519) 977648 (+12586)
United Kingdom 30076 (+649) 201101 (+6111) 0 (+0) 171025 (+5462)
Italy 29684 (+369) 214457 (+1444) 93245 (+8014) 91528 (-6939)
Spain 25857 (+244) 253682 (+3121) 159359 (+4641) 68466 (-1764)
France 25809 (+278) 174191 (+3640) 53972 (+1236) 94410 (+2126)
Brazil 8536 (+615) 125218 (+10503) 51370 (+3149) 65312 (+6739)
Belgium 8339 (+323) 50781 (+272) 12731 (+290) 29711 (-341)
Germany 7275 (+282) 168162 (+1155) 137696 (+2596) 23191 (-1723)
Iran 6418 (+78) 101650 (+1680) 81587 (+1112) 13645 (+490)
Netherlands 5204 (+36) 41319 (+232) 0 (+0) 36115 (+196)
China 4633 (+0) 82883 (+2) 77911 (+58) 339 (-56)
Canada 4223 (+184) 63403 (+1365) 27816 (+878) 31364 (+303)
Turkey 3584 (+64) 131744 (+2253) 78202 (+4917) 49958 (-2728)
Sweden 2941 (+87) 23918 (+702) 4074 (+0) 16903 (+615)
Mexico 2507 (+236) 26025 (+1120) 16810 (+872) 6708 (+12)
Switzerland 1805 (+10) 30060 (+51) 25700 (+300) 2555 (-259)
India 1785 (+92) 52987 (+3587) 15331 (+1189) 35871 (+2306)
Ecuador 1618 (+49) 31881 (+0) 3433 (+0) 26830 (-49)
Russia 1537 (+86) 165929 (+10559) 21327 (+1462) 143065 (+9011)
Peru 1533 (+89) 54817 (+3628) 17527 (+2114) 35757 (+1425)
Ireland 1375 (+36) 22248 (+265) 17110 (+3724) 3763 (-3495)
Portugal 1089 (+15) 26182 (+480) 2076 (+333) 23017 (+132)
Indonesia 895 (+23) 12438 (+367) 2317 (+120) 9226 (+224)
Romania 864 (+23) 14107 (+270) 5788 (+334) 7455 (-87)
Poland 733 (+17) 14740 (+309) 4655 (+375) 9352 (-83)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 259494 (+6155) 3729826 (+89156) 1213559 (+52638)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 252863 ( +2577) 3587454 ( +37894) 1204957 ( +29787)
Fri 08 May 2020 255213 ( +2349) 3622494 ( +35040) 1233224 ( +28267)
Sat 09 May 2020 257351 ( +2138) 3654840 ( +32346) 1259953 ( +26729)
Sun 10 May 2020 259293 ( +1942) 3684651 ( +29811) 1285142 ( +25189)
Mon 11 May 2020 261054 ( +1761) 3712085 ( +27434) 1308803 ( +23661)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82883 (+2) 77911 (+58)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 4036 ( +1) 81687 ( +0) 77023 ( +1)
Fri 08 May 2020 4037 ( +1) 81687 ( +0) 77024 ( +1)
Sat 09 May 2020 4038 ( +1) 81687 ( +0) 77025 ( +1)
Sun 10 May 2020 4039 ( +1) 81687 ( +0) 77026 ( +1)
Mon 11 May 2020 4040 ( +1) 81687 ( +0) 77027 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 25857 (+244) 253682 (+3121) 159359 (+4641)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 24608 ( +47) 241180 ( +632) 160922 ( +3424)
Fri 08 May 2020 24649 ( +41) 241743 ( +562) 164177 ( +3255)
Sat 09 May 2020 24685 ( +36) 242243 ( +500) 167262 ( +3085)
Sun 10 May 2020 24716 ( +31) 242687 ( +444) 170178 ( +2916)
Mon 11 May 2020 24744 ( +27) 243082 ( +395) 172928 ( +2749)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 29684 (+369) 214457 (+1444) 93245 (+8014)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 28416 ( +81) 206426 ( +474) 90079 ( +1917)
Fri 08 May 2020 28489 ( +73) 206853 ( +427) 91917 ( +1838)
Sat 09 May 2020 28554 ( +65) 207238 ( +385) 93675 ( +1758)
Sun 10 May 2020 28612 ( +58) 207585 ( +347) 95353 ( +1678)
Mon 11 May 2020 28665 ( +52) 207897 ( +313) 96950 ( +1597)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 30076 (+649) 201101 (+6111) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 29874 ( +451) 192936 ( +2026) nan ( +nan)
Fri 08 May 2020 30287 ( +413) 194778 ( +1842) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 30663 ( +376) 196449 ( +1671) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 31006 ( +343) 197963 ( +1514) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 31317 ( +311) 199332 ( +1369) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 74200 (+1959) 1258051 (+21064) 206203 (+6519)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 71822 ( +727) 1217730 ( +11972) 209867 ( +7080)
Fri 08 May 2020 72464 ( +642) 1228624 ( +10894) 216571 ( +6704)
Sat 09 May 2020 73030 ( +566) 1238519 ( +9895) 222885 ( +6314)
Sun 10 May 2020 73528 ( +498) 1247492 ( +8973) 228800 ( +5915)
Mon 11 May 2020 73965 ( +437) 1255616 ( +8124) 234313 ( +5514)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 25809 (+278) 174191 (+3640) 53972 (+1236)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 24909 ( +61) 167795 ( +111) 51843 ( +292)
Fri 08 May 2020 24961 ( +52) 167888 ( +93) 52102 ( +260)
Sat 09 May 2020 25006 ( +45) 167967 ( +78) 52333 ( +231)
Sun 10 May 2020 25044 ( +38) 168033 ( +66) 52538 ( +205)
Mon 11 May 2020 25077 ( +33) 168089 ( +56) 52719 ( +182)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 7275 (+282) 168162 (+1155) 137696 (+2596)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 7053 ( +46) 161760 ( +167) 132711 ( +827)
Fri 08 May 2020 7094 ( +40) 161905 ( +145) 133440 ( +729)
Sat 09 May 2020 7129 ( +35) 162030 ( +126) 134081 ( +641)
Sun 10 May 2020 7160 ( +31) 162139 ( +109) 134644 ( +563)
Mon 11 May 2020 7188 ( +27) 162233 ( +94) 135138 ( +494)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 5204 (+36) 41319 (+232) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 5050 ( +25) 40879 ( +164) 147 ( +0)
Fri 08 May 2020 5072 ( +22) 41026 ( +147) 147 ( +0)
Sat 09 May 2020 5092 ( +20) 41158 ( +132) 147 ( +0)
Sun 10 May 2020 5110 ( +18) 41275 ( +118) 147 ( +0)
Mon 11 May 2020 5125 ( +16) 41380 ( +105) 147 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 8339 (+323) 50781 (+272) 12731 (+290)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 7970 ( +31) 50415 ( +219) 12300 ( +68)
Fri 08 May 2020 7997 ( +27) 50610 ( +195) 12359 ( +60)
Sat 09 May 2020 8020 ( +23) 50783 ( +173) 12412 ( +53)
Sun 10 May 2020 8039 ( +19) 50937 ( +154) 12459 ( +47)
Mon 11 May 2020 8056 ( +17) 51074 ( +137) 12500 ( +41)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 2941 (+87) 23918 (+702) 4074 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 2881 ( +33) 23665 ( +327) 4844 ( +786)
Fri 08 May 2020 2911 ( +29) 23971 ( +306) 5782 ( +938)
Sat 09 May 2020 2937 ( +26) 24257 ( +286) 6901 ( +1119)
Sun 10 May 2020 2960 ( +23) 24524 ( +267) 8236 ( +1336)
Mon 11 May 2020 2981 ( +21) 24773 ( +249) 9830 ( +1594)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 733 (+17) 14740 (+309) 4655 (+375)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 731 ( +11) 14192 ( +134) 4757 ( +190)
Fri 08 May 2020 741 ( +10) 14314 ( +122) 4934 ( +177)
Sat 09 May 2020 749 ( +9) 14425 ( +111) 5097 ( +163)
Sun 10 May 2020 757 ( +8) 14525 ( +100) 5246 ( +150)
Mon 11 May 2020 764 ( +7) 14616 ( +91) 5383 ( +136)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 1805 (+10) 30060 (+51) 25700 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 1766 ( +5) 29195 ( +13) 24458 ( +85)
Fri 08 May 2020 1770 ( +4) 29206 ( +11) 24532 ( +73)
Sat 09 May 2020 1774 ( +4) 29216 ( +10) 24595 ( +63)
Sun 10 May 2020 1777 ( +3) 29224 ( +8) 24650 ( +54)
Mon 11 May 2020 1780 ( +3) 29231 ( +7) 24696 ( +47)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 8536 (+615) 125218 (+10503) 51370 (+3149)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 8770 ( +411) 129081 ( +6815) 46084 ( +559)
Fri 08 May 2020 9173 ( +403) 135990 ( +6909) 46553 ( +469)
Sat 09 May 2020 9566 ( +393) 142965 ( +6975) 46946 ( +392)
Sun 10 May 2020 9947 ( +381) 149977 ( +7012) 47273 ( +327)
Mon 11 May 2020 10314 ( +367) 156995 ( +7018) 47545 ( +272)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 6418 (+78) 101650 (+1680) 81587 (+1112)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 6124 ( +19) 97117 ( +298) 80931 ( +568)
Fri 08 May 2020 6141 ( +18) 97387 ( +270) 81444 ( +512)
Sat 09 May 2020 6157 ( +16) 97632 ( +245) 81905 ( +461)
Sun 10 May 2020 6172 ( +14) 97854 ( +222) 82320 ( +415)
Mon 11 May 2020 6185 ( +13) 98055 ( +201) 82693 ( +373)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.